Redrawing Asia

Background

Why US-China Decoupling Now?

The US-China conflict that began with the 2018 trade war is not a simple dispute. Seven years on, structural separation is accelerating — and the data is unambiguous.

+161%

Korea semiconductor exports
Feb 2026 — all-time record

13 months

Consecutive trade surplus
decoupling benefits persist

20–30%

Tariff levels maintained even
after Trump-Xi Busan summit

10+ years

Structural separation trend
not a short-term event

2018

Trump Trade War begins — retaliatory tariffs aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China

2020–2022

Semiconductor export controls & tech separation — TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix face supply restrictions to China

2023–2024

Rare earth and critical resource controls tighten — China restricts exports of gallium, germanium; resource weaponization intensifies

Oct 2025

Trump-Xi Busan Summit — tariffs remain at 20–30%, semiconductor regulations and rare earth controls unchanged. The conflict structure is intact.

Feb 2026

Korean semiconductor exports +161% — 13 consecutive months of trade surplus. Decoupling benefits confirmed in hard numbers.

Investment Strategy

4-Axis Active Allocation

The decoupling opportunity is structured into four axes, with weights dynamically adjusted as market conditions evolve.

🔵

Advanced Supply Chains

Korea · Japan · Taiwan Core

Direct beneficiaries of cutting-edge semiconductors China cannot produce. As US export controls on China tighten, Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese semiconductor, materials, and equipment companies become more valuable.

🟡

China+1

India · ASEAN

New homes for global supply chains exiting China. As Apple, Samsung, Nike, and other global brands shift factories to India and Vietnam, new manufacturing hubs are rising fast.

🔴

Strategic Assets

Defense · Critical Resources

The era of allied rearmament and resource security. Rising defense budgets in NATO, Japan, and Korea — plus competition for rare earths, uranium, and other critical materials — drive demand for related ETFs.

🟢

Decoupling Hedge

EM ex-China · Bonds · Gold

A volatility safety net. This axis defends the portfolio during geopolitical risk spikes, composed of emerging markets (ex-China), developed market bonds, and gold.

📌 The weight and selection of each axis is dynamically adjusted monthly based on market conditions — this is not a static portfolio.

Operating System

Two Signals

Axis weight adjustments are driven by two quantitative signals.

🚨

Geopolitical Signal

Our experts classify and score US-China related events by category each month. When cumulative intensity crosses a threshold, Advanced Supply Chain and Strategic Asset weights expand.

🌪

Risk-Off Signal

VIX (market fear index) and Asian equity momentum are monitored simultaneously. When markets enter risk-off mode, the Hedge axis expands and Advanced Supply Chain weight contracts.

Both signals are conservatively calibrated — in normal market conditions, the portfolio operates stably.

Investment Philosophy

Systematic + Discretionary

We combine rules-based systems with human judgment to achieve both consistency and flexibility.

⚙ Systematic

Base weights for each of the 4 axes
Automated momentum and volatility scoring
Automated geopolitical and risk-off signal assessment
Rules-based automatic rebalancing

👤 Discretionary

Monthly review and approval of system outputs
Integration of unstructured data: summit agendas, currency trends
Fine-tuning based on market sentiment
Final decision-making and model limitation override

"The system ensures consistency and removes emotion; the portfolio manager incorporates unstructured information the system cannot see."

Process

Monthly Rebalancing

Systematic response to market changes — without excessive trading.

1

Axis weight adjustment based on market signals — geopolitical and risk-off signals update the 4-axis target weights each month.

2

Out low-momentum holdings / In rising candidates — we select the optimal ETF combination from the universe.

3

Weight bands prevent excessive trading — small fluctuations are ignored, keeping unnecessary transaction costs low.

Investor Fit

Is This Right for You?

Check whether this strategy matches your investment goals and risk tolerance.

⭕ Good Fit

You believe US-China decoupling is a structural trend lasting 10+ years
You want global diversification with a clear directional thesis
Monthly stock analysis and rebalancing feels burdensome
You prefer systematic management combining rules and expert judgment

❌ Poor Fit

You expect short-term or speculative returns
You believe US-China will reconcile soon
You are very conservative and cannot tolerate any volatility

Important Notices

Before You Invest

Please review these risk factors carefully before investing.

⚠️

Scenario Risk

A sudden shift in US-China relations may weaken the base scenario underpinning this strategy.

💱

Currency Risk

Composed of US-listed ETFs — returns are subject to USD/KRW exchange rate fluctuations.

📊

EM Volatility

Emerging market ETFs can exhibit high short-term volatility by nature.

🔔

Signal Limitations

The signals may not respond immediately to sudden events and signal errors are possible.

Recommended Approach

Investment advisory services do not guarantee return of principal or investment gains. Loss of principal may occur. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.